大学教育的价值可能没你想的那么高。多年来，高等教育被吹嘘为通向事业和经济成就的阳关大道。人们长久以来认为，相比仅受过高中教育者，大学毕业生有能力打下坚实的职业基础，挣的钱也要多得多。
For years, higher education was touted as a safe path to professional and financialsuccess. Graduates, it has long been argued, would be able to build solid careers that would earn them far more than their high-school educated counterparts.
多年来，高等教育被吹嘘为通向事业和经济成就的阳关大道。人们长久以来认为，相比仅受过高中教育者，大学毕业生有能力打下坚实的职业基础，挣的钱也要多得多。
The numbers appeared to back it up. In recent years, the nonprofit College Board touted the difference in lifetime earnings of college grads over high-school graduates at $800,000, a widely circulated figure. Other estimates topped $1 million.
相关数据似乎也佐证了这种观点。近年来，非营利机构College Board声称大学毕业生一生比高中毕业生多挣80万美元，这个数字被广泛引用。其他一些估计超过100万美元。
But now, as tuition continues to skyrocket and many seeking to change careers are heading back to school, some researchers are questioning the methodology behind the high projections.
但如今，在学费继续一路飙升、许多想转换职业的人回到学校之际，一些研究人员却在质疑上述宏伟前景背后的方法论。
Most researchers agree that college graduates, even in rough economies, generally fare better than individuals with only high-school diplomas. But just how much better is where the math gets fuzzy.
大多数研究人员都认为，大学毕业生通常比只有高中文凭者过得好，即便在经济不景气时也是如此。不过好到什么程度则没那么容易算得清楚明白。
The problem stems from the common source of the estimates, a 2002 Census Bureau report titled 'The Big Payoff.' The report said the average high-school graduate earns $25,900 a year, and the average college graduate earns $45,400, based on 1999 data. The difference between the two figures is $19,500; multiply it by 40 years, as the Census Bureau did, the result is $780,000.
问题的根源在于上述预计所使用的同一份资料──2002年美国人口普查局(Census Bureau)的一份名为《巨大的回报》(The Big Payoff)的报告。报告说，高中毕业生平均年薪2.59万美元，大学毕业生平均年薪4.54万美元，其依据的是1999年数据。二者平均年薪的差额为1.95万美元，再乘以40年(人口普查局就是这么干的)，结果就是78万美元。
'The idea was not to produce a definitive 'This is what you'll earn' number, but to try and give some measure of the relative value of education attainments,' says Eric Newburger, a lead researcher at the Census and the paper's co-author. 'It's not a statement about the future, it's a statement about today.'
人口普查局的研究员、该报告作者之一纽伯格(Eric Newburger)说，报告并不是要给出一个“你赚的就是这么多”的数字，而是试图衡量教育背景的相对价值。它并不是对未来情况的表述，只是表明当前的情况。
Mark Schneider, a vice president of the American Institutes for Research, a nonprofit research organization based in Washington, calls it 'a million-dollar misunderstanding.'
华盛顿的非营利研究机构美国研究协会(American Institutes for Research)副主席施耐德(Mark Schneider)说，这是个价值百万的误解。
One problem he sees with the estimates: They don't take into account deductions from income taxes or breaks in employment. Nor do they factor in debt, particularly student debt loads, which have ballooned for both public and private colleges in recent years. In addition, the income data used for the Census estimates is from 1999, when total expenses for tuition and fees at the average four-year private college were $15,518 per year. For the 2009-10 school year, that number has risen to $26,273, and it continues to increase at a rate higher than inflation.
他觉得上述估计数字的一个问题是，它们没有减掉所得税或算上中断就业的情况。另外它们也没有计入债务，尤其是学生贷款，近年来公立和私立大学的这类贷款都不断膨胀。除此之外，人口普查局报告使用的收入数据是1999年的，当时四年私立大学的学杂费总计为每年15,518美元。2009-10学年，这一数字已经增加到26,273美元，而且还在以高于通胀的速度继续上涨。
